The year in numbers
11 April 2018GlobalData’s 2017 Global Capacity and Capital Expenditure Outlook provided an overview for the second half of the year. The analyst shared some of its main findings with World Expro.
Global crude distillation unit (CDU) capacity is expected to register strong growth of 14.2% up to 2021, increasing from 99 million barrels (MMbbl) a day in 2017 to 113MMbbl a day by 2021. When GlobalData released its Global Capacity and Capital Expenditure Outlook for 2017, around 13 newbuild refineries were stalled, 30 were announced, and one had been cancelled since the previous report in February 2017.
The new research shows that Asia is expected to have the highest planned and announced CDU capacity of 5.7MMbbl a day by 2021, followed by North America with 2.4MMbbl a day. In terms of global capital spending, Asia leads again with capital expenditure (capex) of $210 billion proposed for planned and announced projects up to 2021. Africa and the Middle East follow with $91.5 billion and $81.5 billion, respectively.
2021 vision
China, Nigeria and Malaysia lead the countries, with the most planned and announced CDU capacity additions and capital spending by 2021. China is expected to add 3.4Mbbl of CDU capacity through 11 refineries, and is expected to have capex of $68.3 billion on new-build refineries by 2021.
Nigeria plans to add 1.2Mbbl of CDU capacity through 12 refineries by 2021. The country is expected to spend $39.4 billion up to 2021 on the newbuild refineries. Malaysia is expected to witness the addition of 700Mbbl of CDU capacity through two refinery additions by 2021, and capex of $39.1 billion over the next few years. Nakhodka in Russia, and Pengerang and Yan in Malaysia, are the top planned refineries globally in terms of capex during the 2017–21 period.
Nakhodka is expected to have total capex of $21.6 billion, while Pengerang and Yan have respective capex of $20.2 billion and $18.0 billion. Dayushan Island refinery in China, Lagos I refinery in Nigeria, and Al-Zour refinery in Kuwait are the top three planned refineries globally in terms of CDU capacity, by 2021.
The refineries are expected to have CDU capacities of 800, 650 and 615mbd respectively.
New projects
There were a number of key new project announcements over the period, including the planned Eghudu refinery in Nigeria, proposed in order to meet growing demand for refined products in the country.
The topping-type refinery is expected to start operations by 2018, with CDU capacity of 24mbd. The project has total capex of $2 billion. Alpha Dove Group is the 100% stakeholder and proposed operator of this refinery. The announced Caofeidian II refinery in Hebei, China, is expected to start operations by 2019 with 300mbd CDU capacity. The project has proposed capex of $6 billion. Major equity holders in this cracking-type integrated refinery are Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco) (33.34%) and Saudi Basic Industries (33.33%). Saudi Aramco is the proposed operator.
The announced Pecos County refinery is proposed to come online in Texas, US. With proposed capex of $450 million, the hydroskimming-type refinery is expected to start operations in 2019 and have CDU capacity of 50mbd. It would process crude from the Permian basin and export the refined products to West Mexico and South America. MMEX Resources Corp is the 100% stakeholder and the proposed operator of this upcoming refinery.
Projects stalled and cancelled
The Al Shaheen refinery was proposed in Messaieed, Qatar. It was planned with CDU capacity of 250mbd and an estimated capex of $6 billion. Earlier, in 2010, the refinery project was stalled to focus on the Ras Laffan Condensate Expansion Project. Qatar Petroleum was the sole owner and the proposed operator of this cracking-type refinery.
The 40mbd Meta refinery is proposed in Colombia. Expected to start operations in 2021, this project has capex of $2.1 billion. La Empresa de Petroleos del Llano – Llanopetrol (20.00%) and Rosneftegazstroy (80%) are the stakeholders of this project. REFIMETA was the proposed operator of this integrated, coking-type refinery.
The Bayelsa II refinery is proposed to come online in Bayelsa, Nigeria. The 200mbd integrated cracking-type refinery is expected to have capex of $3 billion. Equity stakeholder and operatorship details are presently unavailable.
The 107mbd Calabar I refinery is proposed in Cross River State, Nigeria. The cracking-type of refinery project has capex of $7.5 billion. Osabo Refining and Petrochemical Industry (50%) and Sino Arab Energy (50%) are the equity stakeholders, while Osabo Refining and Petrochemical Industry are the proposed operators.
